There’s No Light at the End of Jihad’s Long Tunnel

Philos Project, by Andrew Harrod, April 3, 2017:

“We have to accept that we are in a long war. That this has no easy answers.”

Georgetown University professor and terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman made this grim diagnosis while recently speaking at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The institute’s presentation “Post Caliphate: The Future of the Salafi-Jihadi Movement” gave a distressingly sober examination of why victory over the world’s militant groups will not come any time soon.

Referencing the 2011 American SEAL killing of Osama bin Laden and the demise of other Al-Qaeda leaders, Hoffman pointed out that five years ago, that militant group was widely believed to be on the downward slope toward collapse. But last February, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper spoke to the United State Committee on Armed Services and “painted a remarkably bleak and melancholy picture of a newly resurgent Al-Qaeda.” In a now-famous 1998 interview, bin Laden said that he welcomed “the opportunity of martyrdom, because I am completely confident that my death will produce thousands of more Osamas.” According a slide showing the number of Al-Qaeda affiliates currently operating across the globe from Nigeria to Indonesia, bin Laden’s dream may well have been realized.

According to Hoffman, the “conventional wisdom in recent years was also that [the Islamic State] would remain an entirely local phenomenon” in the Middle East. But ISIS attacks like the November 2015 event in Paris have disproved this thesis. Such miscalculations “should make us very sober about any conception that we have a good pulse on ISIS even today – much less that we truly understand the dynamics and the evolution of the broader jihadi movements.”

Hoffman warned against unfounded optimism, pointing out that the Islamic State’s expulsion from Iraq would not end the group’s widespread threat. According to his presentation, at a minimum, ISIS will go underground like Al-Qaeda did, using international terrorist strikes in particular to keep the organization vibrant. But many analysts “don’t consider one of the worst case scenarios,” he said, “and that is the potential for some sort of reconciliation between Al-Qaeda and ISIS.”

Militant groups like the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda don’t just disappear. They are continuously attempting to rejuvenate themselves. “These groups – for more than a decade and a half – have been able to withstand the greatest onslaught directed against terrorists in history, often by the most technologically advanced military in the history of mankind,” Hoffman said, pointing out that this phenomenon seems to confirm the jihadist belief in “their divinely-ordained struggle: that there will be travails; there will be setbacks. But that victory is still possible.”

Washington Institute terrorism expert Matthew Levitt said that “the West faced an increasingly international terrorist threat before ISIS – so the demise of the Islamic State is going to be no panacea.” Referencing former Al-Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi – who was killed by a 2006 American airstrike in Iraq – Levitt pointed out that the Islamic State actually emerged from the once-defeated Al-Qaeda in Iraq group. He said that tomorrow’s bin Laden or Zarqawi could very well be someone in his or her teens or early 20s in Syria or Iraq today.

Like ISIS arising from Al-Qaeda’s ashes, Levitt worried that the political instability giving rise to ISIS would promote the resurgence of jihadists yet again, after the Islamic State’s impeding loss of its territorial “caliphate.” “I don’t see any hope for the type of political reform in Iraq that would be necessary to give Sunnis there a sense of comfort and say and security in the country that wouldn’t lead eventually to Sunni resentment and uprising again,” he said. Likewise, in Syria, “we have more grievances today than we had before.”

Levitt focused on the “post-Arab Spring world and the reality that there are significantly failed states – Syria of course, but Libya, Yemen and significantly weak states like Iraq and Egypt – that create significant regional instability.” Invoking the “looming disequilibria” of the DNI report Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, he noted that “there are more ungoverned spaces than there were just a few years ago,” allowing for emulation of the Islamic State’s unique type of “terrorist proto-state.” Additionally, “now you have overlain on top of all of this a tremendous and heavy layer of sectarianism,” adding to the ability of groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS to “hijack some local grievance.”

Hoffman illustrated the global dangers emanating from such crisis zones by noting that, at most, 15,000 foreign jihadists passed through Al-Qaeda’s Afghanistan training camps from 1990–2001, according to the 9/11 Commission Report. By contrast, approximately four times that number of foreigners joined jihadist groups in Syria, an estimation Levitt considered conservative. “To date, our efforts to build partner capacity militarily in Iraq, Mali, Yemen and Afghanistan have all miserably failed,” Hoffman said.

Levitt brought these dangers home, saying that “about 1,000 potential homegrown violent extremists in all 50 states in the United States” are under investigation, a “very sharp increase from what we had a few years ago. The ‘lone wolf’ metaphor” often used to describe these individuals is largely a misnomer. While wolves are pack animals, a lone wolf is meant to conjure up the image of someone who has rejected his nature and is now acting completely independently: a rogue individual.”

According to Levitt, the dangerous reality is that,

more often than not, the evidence indicates that suspects thought to have been “lone wolves” might more accurately be described as “known wolves,” people whose radicalization, suspicious travel and changes of behavior were observed by acquaintances. Increasingly, U.S. officials view the terrorist threat on a spectrum, from inspired individuals acting alone to terrorist operatives acting at the direct orders of Islamic State leaders in Syria or other groups.

“This will sound very dour and very pessimistic,” Hoffman concluded, “but we are losing against global jihadists. There is widespread popular enervation both at home and overseas amongst our European allies: disillusionment with what many regard as a seemingly endless struggle.”

Terrorism “is always designed to wear down one’s enemies. You just have to look around in the West and see that [the jihadists] are succeeding.”

GORKA: The Front Line of This War Runs Through Art Galleries in Ankara and Christmas Festivities in Berlin

Fox News

Fox News

Breitbart, by John Hayward, December 21, 2016:

Breitbart News National Security Editor Dr. Sebastian Gorka, author of the best-selling book Defeating Jihad: The Winnable War, discussed Monday’s terror attacks in Turkey and Germany with Fox News host Bret Baier on Special Report.

Gorka said the attacks were “yet again verification that in this war, there isn’t a front line like there was in World War I or World War II.”

“The front line is when you leave your house in the morning. The front line is in art galleries. The front line is at Christmas festivities in Berlin,” he said. “The fact is, Europe is at war. America is at war, and the jihadis are already in place.”

“We saw in Ankara that this is perhaps the most grievous example of insider threat. This is a police officer. This isn’t somebody who came off a boat yesterday out of Syria,” Gorka said of the man who murdered Russian ambassador Andrey Karlov. “This is somebody who clearly was trained with a weapon, who was carrying a weapon. That is perhaps the most insidious potential threat that we have to face.”

Baier noted that the Islamic State’s publications were urging precisely the sort of vehicular assault that occurred in Berlin, as far back as early November. There were even early warnings specifically concerning attacks on Christmas markets.

“Yes, don’t forget that the San Bernardino attack occurred when? It occurred during a Christmas party at the office where the couple, Farouk and Malik, worked,” Gorka pointed out. “The symbolism is very important here. This is the infidel holiday that they’re attacking.”

“ISIS has learned from al-Qaeda’s mistakes,” he said. “Al-Qaeda was obsessed with spectacle, and with killing as many people as possible. Ironically, 9/11 was perhaps too successful – 3,000 people in 102 minutes. ISIS said, well, it’s not about more people or WMD. Let’s just do classic guerrilla warfare. You don’t even have to build a bomb. You don’t even have to steal a gun. Just get in a vehicle. Mow down the infidel.”

Gorka noted that “mow the infidel down like grass” was literally the instruction given to followers of ISIS in Rumiyah, the magazine Baier quoted from.

“And what did we see in Nice? Almost a hundred people killed. Somebody has just taken that to Germany,” Gorka said.

He said the reluctance of authorities in the U.S. and Europe to acknowledge acts of Islamic terrorism have “become a joke.”

“It’s like a bad SNL skit. I mean, you’ve all seen the memes on Twitter, you know, ‘Could it be terrorism? Could it be related to jihad?’ When a man is shouting ‘Allahu akbar,’ when you see a tactic that comes straight out of the tradecraft of al-Qaeda, of ISIS, being used, what are we waiting for?” he asked.

“It was interesting, a former intelligence officer who’s very active on Twitter said the longer the authorities don’t provide the name of the suspect, the higher the likelihood that it’s a jihadi attack. What are we finding again? Exactly the same in Germany,” he noted ruefully.

Gorka said it was “very obvious what’s going to change immediately” when President-elect Trump is inaugurated.

“If you read, the best advice I can give is, anybody who wants to know what’s going to happen, read President-elect Trump’s Youngstown speech. Not a lot of people paid attention to it. The Youngstown speech is his rhetorical plan for defeating the jihadi threat that is a global movement,” said Gorka.

“The first thing I can guarantee – having read that, having read Lt. General Flynn’s book Field of Fight, he is now the National Security Adviser-designate to Donald Trump – the first thing that’s going to happen is the total jettisoning of political correctness. This idea that the enemy calls themselves jihadis, and we’re not allowed to call them jihadis, that ends the evening of January 20th. The politicization of the intelligence cycle will be finished,” he predicted.

The full text of Donald Trump’s speech on terrorism in Youngstown, as referred to by Dr. Gorka, can be found here.

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John Guandolo: We are Seeing a Convergence of the Socialist-Marxist Movement and the Islamic Movement

phased-insurgency-planJohn Guandolo gives an excellent talk on Islamic Law and the subversive movement under way to replace our government and Judeo-Christian values with an Islamic State. We are in the phase of total confrontation now. This is a full on insurgency. Thank God Guandolo is educating Law Enforcement on this!

Towards the end of the talk he explains that the Black Lives Matter Movement (BLM), the New Black Panther Party and Nation of Islam are completely aligned with the jihadi movement. They share the same financial channels and objectives.

One of the books he mentions is the Tafsir Ibn Kathir, the most renowned and accepted explanation of the Qur’an in the world. As pointed out by Guandolo, it legally defines every verse in the Quran. You can read about it here.

guandolo2

French Scholar of Islam Gilles Kepel: Prepare for War

sislam-will-dominate1Expect the jihad to worsen across Europe, to the point that many states fall into civil war over what to do about the terror.

CounterJihad, Sept. 13, 2016:

How much worse will Islamist terrorism in Europe get?  According to French scholar Gilles Kepel of the Sciences Po institute, it is likely to get so much worse that European states fall into civil war over government inability to stop it.

Professor Gilles Kepel, from the Sciences Po in Paris, France, said a growing ‘Jihad Generation’ is likely to continue to carry out terror acts in European cities.  The aim of their terror activity is to both incite hatred towards Muslims and, in doing so, cause further radicalisation among young people, the professor of political science said.

He told the German newspaper Die Welt that this in turn could lead to the point where Europe enters into civil war.

 

Specifically, Kepel is concerned that this continual wave of terror attacks cannot be effectively stopped by traditional policing methods.  The French government seems to agree, as French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said this week that there would definitely be more successful attacks even though his government is stopping attacks “every day.”

Partially this is because police do not have anything like the resources they would need.  The numbers of Muslims on terrorism watch lists in France alone tops 15,000, having tripled in recent months.  It takes many police officers to establish a full-time watch on one particular suspect.  The French have far less capacity to watch these suspects than does the American FBI, and even they have only “a few dozen” surveillance teams — far too few to watch the thousand-plus suspected Islamic terrorists here.  There is simply no way for police work alone to deal with so large a problem.

Thus, terrorist acts on the scale of the recent Paris attacks are likely to continue, and the European populations will eventually find it intolerable.  They will then move to expel Islam from Europe by endorsing right wing parties, Kepel says, and that will lead to the civil wars he fears.

Nor will that be the end of the violence.  The Islamist radicals will not be satisfied with destabilizing Europe, in Kepel’s view.  They will want to build an Islamic society from the wreckage:

The long-term goal of the Jihad Generation is to destroy Europe through civil war and then build an Islamic society from the ashes, Prof. Kepel said. The strategy is similar to the expansion of Islamic State in Syria, Iraq, and Libya where the terrorist organisation was able to use the chaos of civil war to slowly build its forces, grow in power, and rapidly seize territory.

There are things that can be done to lessen the danger, according to Professor Kepel.  One of the main ones is that Islamic leaders should reject Salafism, a form of Islam that requires a kind of disconnection from the secular states characteristic of contemporary Europe.  Kepel proposes that Islamic scholars have a “duty” to reject Salafism, and that most are failing this duty by remaining silent in the face of a rising tide of this ideological movement.

The young are particular persuaded by Salafi ideas, according to Breitbart, as also are thought to be the recent immigrant wave from the crises in the Middle East.  They point out that Germany has begun to raid Salafi preachers, targeting some 45,000 in recent months.  But of course that returns our attention to the scale of the problem.  Raiding 45,000 homes is possible.  Monitoring 45,000 preachers full time is probably quite beyond the resources of any European state, and possibly beyond even the United States.

How America Will Be Attacked: Irregular Warfare, the Islamic State, Russia, and China

mr-article2bThe Gorka Briefing, by Dr. Sebastian Gorka, Aug. 26, 2016:

An article I wrote that was published in the latest issue of Military Review: The Professional Journal of the US Army. The articles is a primer on the roots of unconventional war theories behind the current Islamic insurgency being conducted by the Islamic State, Russia’s current approach to warfare, and the progress of Chinese unrestricted warfare.

HOW AMERICA WILL BE ATTACKED: IRREGULAR WARFARE, THE ISLAMIC STATE, RUSSIA, AND CHINA

“[The Future Operating Environment] “will feature the erosion of sovereignty, weakened developing states, the empowerment of small groups or individuals, and an increasingly contested narrative environment favoring agile nonstate actors and state actors demonstrating persistent proficiency in the irregular domain.” —ARSOF Operating Concept: Future Operating Environment, U.S. Army Special Operations Command

“You may not be interested in War but War is interested in you.”—Apocryphally attributed to Leon Trotsky

As this paper is being written, the U.S. national security establishment is under significant internal and external pressures: internally from the consequences of prosecuting the longest war in the Republic’s history, which has seen unprecedented post-Cold War operational tempos, matched by constant downsizing of our forces and sustainment budgets; externally from the events occurring in the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, and Africa, which has included the rise the Islamic State (IS), the most powerful jihadist organization of the modern age, and the concurrent displacement of more than sixty-five million refugees, a historic world record surpassing even World War II. These pressures are not going to abate, which will most probably lead to the reality of our armed forces having to accomplish more missions with less resources.

At the same time, both nonstate and nation-state adversaries of the United States who have become supremely adept at exploiting irregular warfare (IW) and unconventional modes of attack will exploit these forces. This article is an introduction to three of the most important enemies we face today and who we will also face in the future, and how these actors use IW and unconventional warfare (UW) against our interests: the Islamic State, China, and Russia. . . . (read the article)

Listen to John Batchelor interview with Dr. Sebastian Gorka:

isis-beheading

ISIS & Mao: Institutionalizing Savagery.

“Phase One: The Vexation Phase (IS four years

ago). In the initial stage the jihadist organization will

apply IW to execute dramatic terror attacks against

the infidel and his regional partners. The goal here is to

attrit and weaken the infidel and apostate governments

and prepare the battlespace for Phase Two….”

http://thegorkabriefing.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/militaryreview_20161031_sg.pdf

https://www.joomag.com/magazine/military-review-english-edition-september-october-2016/0635488001471895116?page=42

Media silent on surge in Islam-inspired knife attacks

Jihadist on the Democratic Republic of Congo where Christians are often hacked to death by Muslim rebels

Jihadist on the Democratic Republic of Congo where Christians are often hacked to death by Muslim rebels

‘One of biggest criminal cover-ups in human history’

WND, by Leo Hohmann, Aug. 24, 2016:

The spate of grisly stabbings and beheadings being carried out by Muslims around the world is not really a sudden or unique occurrence but part of a decades-long pattern of violence inspired by the Quran, say Islam critics.

The latest attack on American soil came over the weekend in Roanoke, Virginia, by a 20-year-old man who used a 10-inch butcher knife to attack residents of the Pines apartment complex while shouting, “Allahu Akbar!”

It happened again Monday in Australia, where a 21-year-old British woman, Mia Ayliffe-chung, was hacked to death and two others injured by a Muslim man chanting “Allahu Akbar!” as 30 other tourists looked on in horror.

In Europe the attacks has been an almost weekly occurrence since the influx of 1.5 million Muslim migrants over the last year.

Most of these attacks receive scant coverage in the establishment media, and when they are covered they are glazed over with an obvious attempt to paint them as anything but Islamic in nature. More often than not, they are attributed to mental illness, as WND documented in a list earlier this month of more than 25 attacks.

From Oklahoma to Ohio, Virginia, California

There have been many knife attacks by Muslims on U.S. soil in recent years. The one that received the most media attention was the horrific beheading of 54-year-old Colleen Hufford of Tulsa, Oklahoma, by a male co-worker at a food plant in September 2014. Alton Alexander Nolen, a Muslim convert, beheaded Hufford and stabbed another woman who were not receptive to his attempts at converting them.

Earlier this year, on Feb. 11, the 30-year-old Mohamed Barry entered the Nazareth Restaurant and Deli in Columbus, Ohio, and mercilessly chopped up customers with a machete, injuring four, while yelling, “Allahu Akbar!”

On Nov. 4, 2015, an 18-year-old Muslim student at the University of California at Merced attacked students and teachers with a machete, injuring several of them seriously before he was shot and killed. The FBI, after initially characterizing the attack by Faisal Mohammad as the act of a disgruntled student, admitted months later in March 2016 that he had an ISIS flag and had studied Islamist propaganda.

Some critics believe the lack of media coverage of these attacks amounts to one of the biggest criminal cover-ups in human history.

Among them is Timothy Furnish, a professor of Islamic history who wrote “Sects, Lies and the Caliphate” and also authors the MahdiWatch blog. He said he’s keeping tabs on the knife attacks. And he believes the whitewash treatment these attacks receive by Western governments and media shows both have taken on the role of dhimmis – second-class apologists for Islam.

“We are witnessing a legion of attacks by Muslims and Muslim sympathizers in the West utilizing, specifically, bladed weapons – Germany, the U.K., U.S., Australia – over the past several years,” Furnish told WND. “Most would appear to be attempts to decapitate the victims, although the media seems to try to hide that fact in a number of cases by reporting them only as ‘stabbings’ or ‘knife attacks.’”

What’s going on here?

“Since the common links in most if not all these cases are Muslim or Islamophile perpetrators, bladed weapons and attacks on the neck area, I would submit that the driving force is the Islamic rubric to behead unbelievers – spelled out specifically in the Quran,” Furnish said.

He cited Sura al-Anfal [VIII]:12 and Sura Muhammad [XLVII]:4.

Furnish elaborated on these scriptures in the article, “Beheading in the Name of Islam,” published in Middle East Quarterly.

Quran 47:3 is the key scripture but there are others.

“Those who take the Quran literally – which includes not just terrorist groups like ISIS and al-Qaida but millions of Muslims of the Salafi, Wahhabi and Deobandi persuasion and major Islamic commentators across the centuries – believe that it is an act of piety to carry out such injunctions,” Furnish said. “ISIS’s appeals in, for example, its Dabiq magazine may be the proximate cause for such brutality. But make no mistake, it is Islam itself which is ultimately responsible.

“When the founder of a religion engages in, or at the very least approves of a behavior, I fail to see how said behavior can be deeded ‘radical’ or ‘extremist.’”

Read more

Tom Joscelyn discusses Trump’s ISIS speech on Happening Now

donald-trump-foreign-policy

FDD senior fellow Tom Joscelyn discusses the facts behind Trump’s ISIS speech – Happening Now (Fox News) – August 16, 2016